COASTMOVE (2020-2025)

Future sea level rise (SLR) will increase coastal flood risk1 and threaten to displace up to 187 million people. COASTMOVE will develop a global agent-based model (ABM) to assess which coastal areas will be protected against sea level rise, and which areas will be abandoned through migration. This project studies the effect of sea level rise until 2100 and its effect on global coastal flood risk. Through coupling and agent-based model to a global flood risk model, we can simulate projections in flood risk due to SLR and socio-economic trends. The agent-based model simulates the adaptive behaver of households in the coastal zone, governments and the private sector (e.g. insurance). The project will deliver high resolution (1x1km2) global migration maps; show protection levels for different coastal areas, and projects insurance premiums for different coastal areas.

Figure Coastmove
Generic adaption approaches for sea level rise. After IPPC CZMS (1990)

 This research is conducted in collaboration with Deltares, University of Florida, UCSB, JRC, PIK. 

Contact information: Jeroen Aerts, Toon Haer, Wouter Botzen, Philip Ward.