Re-evaluation of the Netherlands Long-Term Climate
Project: Re-evaluation of the Netherlands Long-Term Climate
Department: Environmental Policy Analysis
Period: 2003 - 2004
Summary
The ultimate objective of the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In 1996, the Netherlands government interpreted this target as follows: to reduce the rate of temperature change to below 2ºC (from pre-industrial levels), to reduce the rate of temperature change to less than 0.1ºC per decade, and to limit sea level rise to 50 cms. Since then, this policy goal has not been re-evaluated.
However, with the upcoming discussions on post-Kyoto commitments and the increase in scientific insights into the risks of climate change and into options and cost of mitigation, a re-evaluation has become very policy relevant again. With this background, the project Re-evaluation of the Netherlands Long-Term Climate Targets (NLTCT), funded by the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Change (NRP), was launched in November 2004. The key research question this project addresses is: Does the Dutch national long-term climate policy goal need to be changed on the basis of the new science that is available and present valuation of the risks, policy efforts and socio-economic costs involved?
The objectives of the project are:
- Provide support to the evaluation and re-definition of the long-term climate policy goals of the Netherlands;
- Evaluate the appropriateness of the indicators selected and possible alternatives from both societal, political and technical point of view;
- Explore views and values of policy makers and stakeholders about acceptable climate change risks;
- Assess the risks and costs associated with different long-term climate policy targets (in terms of avoiding unacceptable risk levels and societal consequences);
- Evaluate the short-term implications of alternative long-term climate targets;
- Thereby both contribute to the way the Netherlands prepares for the international negotiations on the issue; and to the anticipated global and national dialogues on Article 2.
For this purpose, the project seeks to:
- Identify the nature of the problem and developing the participatory integrated assessment approach to be used in the project;
- Organize a survey and a workshop to make an inventory of the perceptions amongst policy makers and stakeholders in the Netherlands on dangerous climate change, to define indicators for the evaluation of dangerous climate change, and the information needed by social actors in order to come to an assessment of the acceptability of the risks for the Dutch society.
- Assess the information available for operationalizing and substantiating the indicator levels in relation to different scenarios of climate change, and providing the additional information for evaluating different indicators levels and (long-term) climate policy targets. This includes an assessment of the efforts and cost implications of meeting different climate policy targets.
- Address the specific information needs by assessing the current status of science with regard to scenarios and the possible implications for the Netherlands.
- A second national stakeholder workshop to discuss the information collected and collated and to determine what criteria and thresholds should be used to define acceptable risk, and what would be the short-term implications for climate policy making.
The project has been executed by the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) in cooperation with the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Wageningen University (WUR), the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment (RIZA), the National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management (RIKZ), the International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University, and UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education.
Contact information: Mr. Harro van Asselt
More information: brochure NLTCT
