Land use modelling
Land use change is the result of many interacting processes across multiple scales involving different economic sectors and a wide variation of actors. Different land uses may lead to competing claims given that land is a limited resource. Policy and land use planning should aim at enhancing the synergies between different land uses and carefully addressing the trade-offs between different choices.
The department aims at improving the overall understanding of land use change using a spatial, multi-sectoral perspective across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Spatial models for simulating scenarios of land use change are developed and applied. Models range from agent-based models at local to integrated models of land use system change at continental to global scales. Models are used to test hypotheses of land use transitions, evaluate integrative scenarios and make ex-ante assessment of specific policies, including agricultural policy reform or biofuel policies.
Researchers of the department have developed the CLUE (including CLUE-s, CLUE-Scanner and Dyna-CLUE) model that is one of the best-known operational land use models and widely used throughout the world. Besides land cover change the CLUE model is capable of addressing dynamics in livestock distribution, agricultural intensity, forest dynamics, urbanization and land functions.
Key publications on this theme:
- Verburg, P.H., Berkel, D.v., Doorn, A.v., Eupen, M.v. and Heiligenberg, H.A.R.M.v., 2010. Trajectories of land use change in Europe: a model-based exploration of rural futures. Landscape Ecology 25(2): 217-232.
- Hellmann, F. and Verburg, P.H. 2010. Impact assessment of the European biofuel directive on land use and biodiversity. Journal of Environmental Management, in press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.02.022.
- Neumann, K., Verburg PH, Stehfest, E., Mueller, C. (in press) The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis. Agricultural Systems. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2010.02.004.
- Britz W, Verburg PH, Leip A (2010) Modelling of land cover and agricultural change in Europe: Combining the CLUE and CAPRI-Spat approaches. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2010.03.008.
Simulated changes in land use between 2000 and 2030
