Adaptation to climate change risk
Methods for risk analysis and evaluation of associated costs of damage due to flooding and drought are developed. Dynamic links between hydrological models, land use models and economic damage assessments have been established to allow an integrated analysis of exposure, damage and possible adaptation options.
These studies involve projections of people, assets and their location, in combination with estimates of hazard probabilities future based on and climate scenarios. Adaptation measures are evaluated in different contexts ranging from local measures such as small sand dams to store water in areas suffering droughts (e.g., in Kenya and Ethiopia)and urban planning and risk management in coastal cities such as Rotterdam (the Netherlands), Jakarta (Indonesia), Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam), and New York (USA), to global assessments of adaptation costs in the water supply sector.
Key publications on this theme:
- World Bank (2010) The Costs to Developing Countries of Adapting To Climate Change. New Methods and Estimates. The Global Report On the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Study. The World Bank, Washington D.C., 84pp.
- Ward, P.J., Beets, W., Bouwer, L.M., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Renssen, H. (2010). Sensitivity of river discharge to ENSO. Geophysical Research Letters, in press.
- Aerts, J.C.J.H., Major, D.C., Bowman, M.J., Dircke, P., Marfai, M.A. (2009). Connecting Delta Cities. Coastal Adaptation, Flood Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change. VU University Press, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 91pp.
- Bouwer, L.M., Bubeck, P. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (in press). Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area. Global Environmental Change, doi.org:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.002.
- Maaskant, B., Jonkman, S.N., & Bouwer, L.M. (2009). Future risk of flooding: an analysis of changes in potential loss of life in South Holland (The Netherlands). Environmental Science and Policy, 12(2), 157-169.
- Bouwer, L.M., Vermaat, J.E. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2008). Regional sensitivities of mean and peak river discharge to climate variability in Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D19103.
